[Generated Title]: Housing Market's "Affordability Crisis": Is It Really That Bad? Or Just a Convenient Narrative?
Home prices are up. Inventory is tight. We've heard this story before, haven't we? Let's dissect the recent headlines and see if the data supports the doom and gloom, or if it's just a catchy narrative.
The Tale of Two States (and a County)
First, consider Onondaga County, New York. The County Clerk's office reported 137 home sales in a single week (early November 2025). Two properties topped the million-dollar mark: a $1.24 million lakefront home in Skaneateles and a $1.15 million property in Cicero. $1M+ for Skaneateles, Cicero homes: Plus 135 more Onondaga County home sales On the surface, this looks like a healthy luxury market. But it's a tiny snapshot. What about broader trends?
Then there's New Hampshire. According to New Hampshire Realtors, the median home price increased 4.5% year-over-year, landing just under $528,000. New Hampshire median home price increases 4.5% since last October This is where the "affordability crisis" narrative kicks in. Dave Cummings, VP of Communications, stated, "We have an affordability crisis that is caused by an inventory crisis." Barry Warhola of Monument Mortgage added that monthly payments are the highest he's ever seen.
The Affordability Index (a metric I’ve never been a huge fan of, given its reliance on somewhat arbitrary "median income" figures) in New Hampshire is currently at 60. This means the median household income is only 60% of what's needed to buy a median-priced home. That sounds dire, right?
Inventory: The Real Culprit?
But let's dig a bit deeper. While prices are up, the New Hampshire report also indicates that sales indicators like the number of sales, days on market, and inventory have all increased. The supply of single-family homes rose more than 14%, and townhouses/condos jumped 15%. Realtor Tommy Bolduc anticipates a surge in activity come spring 2026 if interest rates drop. He doesn't foresee a crash.
Here's my first question: If inventory is increasing, why is it still being framed as an "inventory crisis"? Are we talking about a qualitative shortage – a lack of homes in the right locations or with the desired features? Or is the data simply lagging behind reality? (Real estate data, I've found, is often six to eight weeks behind actual market conditions.)
I've looked at hundreds of these local market reports, and the disconnect between the headline ("affordability crisis!") and the underlying data (inventory up!) is becoming increasingly common. Is it intentional fear-mongering to drive clicks, or just lazy reporting?
The Interest Rate Wildcard
The elephant in the room, of course, is interest rates. Warhola notes the high monthly payments. Bolduc anticipates a spring surge if rates drop. The entire affordability equation hinges on this one factor. A seemingly small drop in interest rates can unlock significant buying power for potential homeowners.
But here's the rub: predicting interest rate movements is a fool's game. The Federal Reserve's decisions are influenced by a complex web of economic factors (inflation, employment, global events) that are notoriously difficult to forecast. So, any predictions about a spring surge are, at best, educated guesses.
A National Perspective (Or Lack Thereof)
It's also important to remember that real estate is intensely local. What's happening in Onondaga County or New Hampshire might not reflect national trends. The absence of national data in the provided fact sheet makes it difficult to draw broader conclusions.
One article, titled "The Lemon Home Trap," from Realtor.com, could not be accessed. This lack of information underscores a crucial point: data transparency in the real estate market remains a persistent challenge. We need access to reliable, comprehensive data to make informed decisions.
A Convenient Narrative, Perhaps?
The "affordability crisis" narrative isn't entirely false. Prices are high, and interest rates are a burden. But the data suggests a more nuanced picture. Increased inventory, potential interest rate drops, and the intensely local nature of the market all complicate the story. It's not a simple "crisis," but rather a complex and evolving situation.
